Matematici rivelano la rete capitalista che domina il mondo
Da New Scientist – 22/10/2011
Oltre le ideologie
In accordo con le proteste che si vanno diffondendo per il mondo, i manifestanti stanno guadagnando nuovi argomenti.
Una analisi delle relazioni tra 43.000 imprese transnazionali ha concluso che un piccolo numero di esse, soprattutto le banche, detiene un potere sproporzionalmente elevato sull’economia globale.
La conclusione é di tre ricercatori dell’Area di sistemi complessi dell’Istituto Federale di Tecnologia di Losanna, in Svizzera.
Questo é il primo studio che va oltre le ideologie e identifica empiricamente questa rete del potere globale.
“La realtà é più complessa , dobbiamo andare oltre i dogmi, sia quelli delle teorie dei complotti che del libero mercato” ha affermato James Glattfelder, uuno degli autori della ricerca. “La nostra analisi é basata sulla realtà.”
La Rete di controllo economico mondiale
L’analisi usa gli stessi modelli matematici impiegati da decine di anni per creare modelli dei sistemi naturali e per la costruzione di simulazione dei più diversi tipi. Ora è stata usata per studiare dati corporativi disponibili in tutto il mondo.
Il risutato é una mappa che traccia la rete di controllo tra le grandi imprese transnazionali a livello globale.
Sudi anteriori avevano già identificato che poche imprese controllano grandi pezzi dell’economia, ma questi studi includevano un numero limitato di imprese e non tenevano conto dei controlli indiretti di proprietà, non potendo quindi essere usati per dire come la rete di controllo economico potrebbe colpire l’economia mondiale – rendendola più o meno instabile, ad esempio.
Il nuovo studio puo’ parlare di questo con l’autorità di chi ha analizzato una base di dati di 37 milioni di imprese e investitori.
L’analisi ha identificato 43.060 grandi imprese transnazionali e ha tracciato le connssioni del controllo azionario tra di loro, costruendo un modello del potere economico su scala mondiale.
Il Potere economico mondiale
Raffinando ancora di più i dati, il modello finale ha rivelato un nucleo centrale di 1.318 grandi imprese con intrecci con due o più altre imprese – in media, ognuna di esse ha 20 connessioni con altre imprese.
Inoltre, sebbene questo nucleo centrale del potere economico concentra solo il 20% dei redditi globali di vendita, le 1.318 imprese insieme detengono la maggioranza delle azioni delle principali imprese del mondo, le cosiddette blue chips nei mercati azionari.
In altre parole, esse detengono un controllo sull’economia reale che tocca il 60% di tutte le vendite realizzate in tutto il mondo. E questo non è tutto.
La Super-entità economica
Quando gli scienziati hanno disfatto il groviglio di questa rete di proprietà incrociate, hanno identificato una “super-entità” di 147 imprese intimamente inter-relazionate che controllano il 40% della ricchezza totale da quel primo nucleo centrale di 1.318 imprese.
“In verità, meno del 1% delle compagnie controlla il 40% della intera rete” ha detto Glattfelder.
E la maggioranza di esse sono banche.
I ricercatori affermano nel loro studio che la concentrazione del potere in se non è né buono né cattivo, ma lo può essere questa interconnessione.
Come il mondo ha visto durante la crisi del 2008, queste reti sono molto instabili: basta che uno ha un problema serio che questo si propaga automaticamente a tutta la rete, trascinando con se l’economia mondiale come un tutto.
Essi ritengono, tuttavia, che questa super entità può non essere il risultato di una cospirazione, 147 imprese sarebbe un numero troppo grande per realizzare qualsiasi complotto.
La questione reale, secondo loro, é sapere se questo nucleo globale di potere economico può esercitare un potere politico centralizzato intenzionalmente.
Essi sospettano che le imprese possono sì competere tra di loro nel mercato, ma agiscono insieme per il loro interesse comune -e uno dei maggiori interessi sarebbe di resistere ai cambiamente nella stessa rete.
Le prime 50 delle 147 imprese transnazionali superconnesse
1.. Barclays plc
2. Capital Group Companies Inc
3. FMR Corporation
4. AXA
5. State Street Corporation
6. JP Morgan Chase & Co
7. Legal & General Group plc
8. Vanguard Group Inc
9. UBS AG
10. Merrill Lynch & Co Inc
11. Wellington Management Co LLP
12. Deutsche Bank AG
13. Franklin Resources Inc
14. Credit Suisse Group
15. Walton Enterprises LLC
16. Bank of New York Mellon Corp
17. Natixis
18. Goldman Sachs Group Inc
19. T Rowe Price Group Inc
20. Legg Mason Inc
21. Morgan Stanley
22. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc
23. Northern Trust Corporation
24. Société Générale
25. Bank of America Corporation
26. Lloyds TSB Group plc
27. Invesco plc
28. Allianz SE 29. TIAA
29. Old Mutual Public Limited Company
30. Aviva plc
31. Schroders plc
32. Dodge & Cox
33. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc*
34. Sun Life Financial Inc
35. Standard Life plc
36. CNCE
37. Nomura Holdings Inc
38. The Depository Trust Company
39. Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance
40. ING Groep NV
41. Brandes Investment Partners LP
42. Unicredito Italiano SPA
43. Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan
44. Vereniging Aegon
45. BNP Paribas
46. Affiliated Managers Group Inc
47. Resona Holdings Inc
48. Capital Group International Inc
49. China Petrochemical Group Company
Bibliografia:
The network of global corporate control Stefania Vitali, James Glattfelder, Stefano Battiston arXiv
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